Time For Another Spring Thunder?

Somewhere, something doesn’t seem to be adding up.

The zeal and alacrity with which the Centre has invoked the ban against the Maoists seems a little strange, leaving many questions unanswered. The Centre, on its part, seems to be maintaining a deathly silence on many of the prickly questions raised by civil society.

The questions being asked are:
• Was the centre left with no choice but the extreme step of banning CPI(Maoists)? Sure, violence cannot necessarily be the answer to all problems (unless the violent business model perpetrated by the lumpen elements of the fascist right-wing parties also appeals to the Maoists), but the Centre’s misguided development story seems to have provided a legitimate raison d’être for the Maoists.
• Wouldn’t dialogue be a better path to rapprochement? The Centre doesn’t seem to be listening to the high-decibel hints in this struggle.
• Why is it that the government has not shown the same promptness in banning certain political formations which destroy public property and kill people in the name of linguistic identity or religion?

But, this column has been intrigued by something quite isolated and seemingly unconnected. If you read the interview given by CPI (Maoist) politburo member Koteshwar Rao’s to Mint newspaper (http://www.livemint.com/2009/05/29001232/Mainstream-politics-not-for-us.html), there is a portion which makes an amazing allegation: Rao claims that the cache of arms with the Trinamool Congress party is in multiples of the Maoists’ arsenal. Here is what he says in the interview: “Majority of our weapons have been seized from the administration. In (West) Bengal, for instance, 60% of our weapons have been snatched from the police. We have bought only 10% on our own; the rest has come from other states. Yet, I would say we don’t even have a small fraction of the cache of arms and ammunition that parties such as the Trinamool Congress (it won a significant victory in the recent Lok Sabha polls and is a rival to the Communist Party of India-Marxist, or CPM, one of the ruling parties in the state) and the CPM have.”

The question is this: if the Trinamool and the Maoists cooperated against the Marxists in Nandigram (leading to Koteshwar Rao’s discovery of Trinamool’s munitions store), then the political equations are getting a bit blurred now with Trinamool partner in Delhi, Congress, rushing to ban the Maoists. Or, was Nandigram a one-night stand, so to speak? Strangely, nobody in Trinamool seems to be denying Rao's claims, unless there is great pride in owning such a arms hoard or people in Trinamool don't read newspapers.

There are other small niggling issues that also beg answers. For instance, the government has already individually banned the three extreme Left outfits – Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist), Peoples’ War Group and Maoist Coordination Centre -- which merged to form Communist Party of India (Maoist). There’s a lesson here: the ban seems useless since the executive action is only against a name, not against a political movement or aimed at addressing a socio-economic malaise. The ban might not achieve anything: the party will change its name and carry on with life.

There’s another side-story developing: A political drift seems to be developing between the CPI(Marxist) members of the Left Front who can win elections (which might need some pragmatism from time to time) and the ideologues trying to run the party from distant Delhi. This will be interesting to watch. Time for another spring thunder?

Fishing For Votes in Schools

It is common knowledge that Mumbai suffers from a serious infrastructure deficit. Actually, most Indian metros suffer from the same malady – haphazard planning, serious shortage of civic amenities, transport squeeze, and so on. But, Mumbai’s politicians probably take the cake – they have discovered ways of adding to the deficit rather than remedying the situation. Scraping the bottom of the vote barrel, they have dredged up a desperate scheme – reserving 90% of junior college (or institutions that offer Plus-2 courses) seats for students from schools affiliated to the local SSC board. This leaves almost nothing for students from the other central boards, such as ICSE or CBSE.

Why is this an infrastructure issue? Actually, unbeknownst to many, Mumbai has only a few good schools. Most of the other metros can proudly boast of a large number of good schools. And, among the few good schools that the “Maximum City” city has, most are affiliated to the central boards. It has also probably escaped everybody’s notice how the city has ceased to be attractive for new business investments. The reason? Among the many irritants that confront newcomers to the city (such as, traffic), lack of a wide choice of good schools figures pretty high on the list. In fact, one expat Citibank CEO opted to relocate to Delhi because his kids had a wider choice of so-called good schools in that city.

The hare-brained 90% reservation scheme has been challenged in court, as it should be. This column suspects that Maharashtra’s Ashok Chavan government may not even be serious about implementing it – make the announcement, allow the bile to rise, encourage protests, fight the court cases, sit back and see the brownie points roll in. First, the education minister announced this scheme and caught everybody by surprise. This was roundly pooh-poohed by his senior party colleagues. Then, suddenly -- one could almost see the bulb light up as realisation of the political dividends dawned -- even the chief minister parachuted into the controversy by expressing his approval.

But, this is a cheap stunt. And, parents of children in SSC-administered schools should be careful before endorsing the scheme. They should see the idea for what it actually is – a cheap vote-catching gimmick. If this government is really serious about SSC students, it should first improve the syllabus. It has now been established beyond any doubt that SSC standards have fallen way behind the central boards, or even some of the other state-run education boards. Most of the SSC schools are in a state of disrepair, and many of them are owned by the state government. The quality of teachers is dropping in all schools, but at a faster rate in the SSC schools. The SSC board needs a long-term fix, not band-aid and plasters.

Budget Badinage

First, my sincere apologies to all readers. Travel schedules and attempts to understand the vagaries of my new daytime job have kept me slightly busy. Promise to be more regular in the future.

The approaching Budget and speculation about its format is occupying the minds of most market observers. That is not surprising. Given the mandate won by this government, everybody is keen to see what form and shape this budget takes. Everybody also has his pet hypothesis. So, as all eyes converge on Pranab Mukerjee, here is this column’s take on the Budget (which is a bit of my own loud thinking and a bit of mish-mash from all that’s appeared so far in the media).

First, the man himself. Pranab Mukherjee is a seasoned politician and not an “economic technocrat”. This is sure to reflect in the Budget. Those hoping for a reforms blitzkrieg may be in for some nasty shocks. Those hoping for a totally populist budget without any market-friendly giveaways may also have got it wrong. The answer might lie in the way the political landscape has shifted.

First, the FM has to mend the gaping hole in the fisc. 'We have to deliberate on ways and means to bring back the economy to higher growth trajectory without fiscal profligacy,' Mr Mukherjee is believed to have told a conference of state ministers. So, out with all hopes of heavy tax cuts. Any substantial tax cuts would have to be substituted with increases in indirect tax rates, an utterly undesirable proposition. But, there are likely to be some tax changes – such as, some tinkering with Fringe Benefit Tax or Securities Transaction Tax which leave an okay taste in the mouth without upsetting the consolidation process.

He may also look at some new tax exemption schemes on a prospective basis to keep the household spending engine on track. Increasing the threshold level for tax breaks on interest paid for new home loans is something that’s already figured in the media. More of such similar schemes might worm their way into the document.

But, he also has to think of the forthcoming assembly elections in some of the states, such as Maharashtra. Therefore, food guarantee programmes, higher procurement prices for rice and other such schemes might find mention in the Budget document. Plus, given the way this monsoon is behaving, Mr Mukherjee might be forced to provide some rural handouts and concessions.

Think state-wise, especially about states that are likely to go to the polls in the next couple of years, when you read the Budget document. The Congress party, emboldened by its improved performance in Uttar Pradesh and some other states where it had reached rock-bottom, will want to consolidate its hold in many states before its current allies (Mamata or Karunanidhi) get too strong or some of the existing political opponents can regroup. See how quickly CBI has acted in arresting NCP man Padamsinh Patil. Or, witness the alacrity with which the Kerala governor has acted against Pinarayi Vijayan, supposed to be close to Prakash Karat. That should provide some clues about not only the shape of politics to come but also hold some pointers to the nature of this year’s Budget document.