Blind-Sided By A Rate Cut

In the frenzied build-up to the Reserve Bank's mid-quarter policy review on July 31 and the drumming up of expectations about a rate cut, everybody took their eyes off the other niggling problem looming in the distance -- slowing down deposits growth.

As a result, while the Reserve Bank governor's policy statement on July 31 contained some nuanced messages -- in keeping with the hallowed tradition of subtle, implicit messaging from the central bank -- most of the public read the message only literally.

So next day, predictably, everybody voiced their disappointment at the absence of a rate cut and expressed their surprise at the SLR cut. This was my piece in next day's ET (read here) highlighting some of the cues in the policy document.

But, two days after the policy, this article by Sugata Ghosh (read here) in ET really spelt out the problem, at which I had only hinted and which the Reserve Bank governor tackled without triggering off any alarm bells.

It may be instructive for market participants to get over their obsession with interest rate cuts and try to see the big picture once in a while. In the absence of any credible policy action, a rate cut seems to have become the default solution. The bitter truth is that there are no magic bullets left for the country's economic problems.

You Say Off-shoring, I Say Outsourcing

Both the Indian economy and the India Inc brand name owe a lot to "outsourcing" as the key to their global recognition and success stories. But, as the recent HSBC scandal demonstrates, the magic of Indian outsourcing seems to be fading away faster than you can say N R Narayana Murthy! What's happening?

The key to the outsourcing trend lies in some of India's strengths built during the 1960s and 1970s -- solid engineering institutions and a knowledge of English. Many global corporations, starting with General Electric and Texas Instruments, realised that some of their grunt work could be outsourced to India. They could use the vast reservoir of Indian engineers to do in India some of the quotidian work they were doing in USA. The prime motivation: saving costs.

This then caught the popular imagination as telecom infrastructure improved during the 90s and made communications -- both data and voice -- cheaper and better. Companies rushed to set up outsourcing centres in India -- shops that basically made sales calls to customers across the English-speaking world, to tackling after sales service issues, to even writing software code.

Another word was added to the business lexicon: "off-shoring". Global companies started spreading their work around the globe, basically to take advantage of cheaper skilled labour pools elsewhere. This also included another phenomenon: transfer pricing, which basically incorporated strategies at the global HQ level of reaping tax advantages by incurring costs in high tax geographies and shifting profits to low tax regimes.

But, since the basic premise behind the entire exercise was cutting costs, there were incentives for inventive managers to keep doing the same thing at lower costs. And, then came the financial crisis. With profits plunging to subterranean depths, companies starting sacrificing well-established risk measures and processes to gain that extra bit of business.

The same applies to banks which had "off-shored" their operations, compliance and risk processes to overseas locations. Ideally, the off-shore location, far removed (geographically, at least) from the business origination centres, were supposed to be neutral and free from any influence. In reality, there's hell to pay if managers in these off-shore centres said "no" to 2-3 consecutive proposals, even if the proposals did not meet the risk matrix guidelines. The pressure to get business is so intense and so acute that anybody saying "no", irrespective of the provenance of the funds, is viewed as an enemy of the institution.

We don't know what happened in HSBC exactly. The bank had an off-shore compliance centre in India to ensure that funds flow met the rules regarding anti-money laundering and terrorist funding. But, what we do know is that  a probe by the US Senate's Permanent Sub-Committee on Investigations found that the Indian compliance office was inadequately staffed, their quality of work was deficient and their monitoring procedures in internal control systems was weak (read full story here and here).

This is not the first time that India off-shore centres have been pulled up for the reasons cited above. In the mad rush to cut costs and stay competitive, many companies are sacrificing critical business processes, making compromises with sacrosanct quality standards. But, the worst culprit seems to be the practice of hiring sub-standard staff, shoring up revenues by skimping on training and telecom facilities and pushing employees to go beyond their call of duty to bring in revenues. This then creates a fertile breeding ground for suspect motives and dodgy ethics.

You can teach all the ehtics you want in B-schools (which, by the way, is another story for another day) but at the end of the day you would need an organisational culture --starting from the Board of Directors to the CEO to even the HR guys -- to implement it. Are we expecting too much from the modern-day corporation?

Turkish Coffee -I

My Istanbul flight timings made sure Monday Mocha gave way to Turkish Coffee on Tuesday. So here are some initial impressions from the land of doner kebaps and koftes.

First, all compliments to the new management at the Mumbai International airport. No more sweaty queues to get into the airport terminal or to get the luggage screened. Smiles all around, courtesies extended and no more desperate crowding. Probably it’s because the air-conditioning was working. But, on a more serious note, the change now makes the flying out of Mumbai a pleasurable exercise.

And then to Istanbul. Somewhere I had been expecting a bleak city, with emotions ruling between the grey and the black, the burden of history weighing heavy on the ordinary Istanbullus’ shoulders. Maybe that’s what happens when you try to see the world through the eyes of Orhan Pamuk. According to him, there is a common leitmotif running through the city’s intricately intertwined genetic lattice – melancholy, or huzun, as a predominant cultural identity. But, on the surface, that somehow seems absent. The city looks bright and colourful, with the people eager to succeed, though the strains of balancing the plethora of competing cultural strands that make up modern-day Istanbul do break through the surface sometimes. But then, this is just a superficial impression gained from spending just one day in this great city. More later. Some pictures too coming up soon.

Inflation Still Stands Between RBI & A Rate Cut

Dark clouds of the metaphorical variety have invaded the Indian airspace at a time when the Indian economy is desperately praying for the real thing. The monsoon deficit, which seems to be aggravating with every passing day, is now well on course to affecting crop sowing and causing a shortfall in agricultural production (read about it here and here). There are other portentous clouds on the horizon too.

Industrial production is limping along: the May numbers show a growth of slightly over 2%. But, mass-scale scepticism underlines this number because the April growth numbers have now been revised down to (-)0.9%. This is ominous: this means that industry produced less (in absolute numbers) in April this year than it did in April last year.



Courtesy: Reuters

Inflation seems out of control, though there is one proverbial lining here. The wholesale price index surged up by 7.25% in June 2012 over June 2011. While this is below the 7.55% rise in May, and also considerably below the Street consensus call of over 7.6%, it’s still way above the Reserve Bank’s comfort zone. Bad news continues to emerge from data revisions – inflation data for April has now been revised upwards to 7.5% from 7.23% announced initially. Consumer inflation for May 2012 remains highly elevated at 10.36%. But, there is still a glimmer of good news in all this: given data volatility and unreliability, RBI tracks core inflation data (or non-food manufacturing inflation) which is currently steady around 5%.


In the midst of all this, the Reserve Bank of India is expected to meet on July 31 to conduct its mid-quarter review of monetary policy. The markets don’t know what to expect: a majority wants rates to be cut, because it associates the slowdown directly with rate hikes in the past. Therefore, it holds to logic (in their minds, at least) that rate cuts will lead to a growth uptick. In addition, many central banks around the world -- China, Europe, Taiwan, South Korea and Brazil -- have cut rates recently and the RBI Governor will be under pressure to emulate them. However, most economists and analysts feel that it might be a bit premature to take the shears to interest rates.

So, how will Duvvuri Subbarao chose to act? While it is a mug’s game trying to predict RBI’s actions (and many a well-known face has ended up with egg on it), this blog will rise above the humdrum and deign to advise the central bank.

This blog feels that the Reserve Bank should hold interest rates at the moment. Although this same blog had argued for a rate cut in February, it is arguing against it now. There are two key reasons. One is, of course, the singular impact that such rate signalling can have on sentiments, which at that point of time sorely needed some encouragement from the authorities. But, the more important reason is the way the opportunity to climb out of the slowdown hole has been squandered. There is no visible action on a number of fronts – either on expenditure management or on implementing major policy reforms. If the rate cut then had been combined with some policy actions from the centre (as was expected then), the situation could have been ripe for another rate cut now.

There are other compelling reasons to press for a pause now. Lower agri production is likely to result in higher food prices, especially for pulses, vegetables and fruits. Simultaneously, it is also expected to translate into lower rural incomes. This will mean lower demand for a broad spectrum of goods and services (think Hero Honda motorcycles or cement for rural housing). On a macro level, this means continuing with a period of slow industrial production. On top of all this, with inflation and inflationary expectations continuing to remain high, with global volatility continuing to put pressure on capital flows and the rupee (thereby creating another distinct source of inflation for the economy), and with the government yet to put its money where its mouth is, it probably makes no sense to cut rates now.

However, the central bank is under tremendous pressure. If it decides to cut rates at all, core inflation at 5% could be a strong reason. It is worth the wait to see how the policy shapes up and trying to figure out what has influenced the eventual outcome.

IIT Entrance Exams: Through The Wrong End of the Telescope!

Courtesy: Wikipedia

Education minister Kapil Sibal’s plans to revamp the system of entrance examination to the IITs has stirred up a fair bit of criticism, debate and an unfortunate display of emotions. It is quite possible that minister Sibal might just be barking up the wrong tree. But, even if you grant that, it is also true that the armies of the aggrieved are possibly looking down the wrong end of the telescope.

Minister Sibal has proposed that marks/grades obtained at the entrance exams should not be the only qualifying criterion for students aspiring admission into IITs. The Institutes should also take into account school performance, because while a particular student might have shown consistently good academic results in school, she could just be having a bad time on the day of the entrance exam.

Fair enough. But, that invites its own set of problems. A bulk of India’s school-going students attend institutions which report to their respective state education boards and the grading pattern, thereby, differs vastly across states. While some state boards are lenient with grading, some are exceedingly tight-fisted. This writer should know: the West Bengal state education board mistakenly believes (or, used to believe) that low marking was a virtuous sign of quality education. Therefore, there is a felt need to regularise grades across states.

The ostensible reason behind minister Sibal's exercise is to stem the growing informal industry of coaching classes, which help students focus – through boot camps – exclusively on cracking the entrance exam. This, it’s felt, is diluting the quality of students entering IITs and, thereby, the quality of engineers entering the job market.

This whole process has stirred up a hornet’s nest. The IIT faculty and alumni have voiced their outrage: they feel that the new system will not only harm the IIT cache but also spawn a new breed of coaching classes that will focus on fetching superlative grades at the school level. IIT alumni members are all influential members of society and therefore this has triggered off a different kind of power politics.

It is true that Kapil Sibal might need to revisit his proposal because if the quality of students is an issue, then the rot starts at the school level, especially the government schools. There is an article written by Ravish Tiwari on this in The Indian Express (read it here). Also, will incorporating the school-leaving academic records stem the rot in the system? Unlikely. In fact, it runs the danger of even breeding an entirely new breed of elitists, who will be selected by IITs for reasons that might be only borderline meritorious but sneakingly subjective. But, undoubtedly, something needs to be done.

Even the IIT faculty and alumni need to introspect. The Express article mentions that the faculty and administration did indeed start debating the quality of students they were taking in every year. How do you change that? One unavoidable option is to overhaul the entrance exam. For instance, should the entrance exams include a separate paper on English? Also, if the quality of engineers graduating is a concern, then the faculty should also take equal responsibility. These students spend four very critical, and impressionable, years of their life in an IIT campus. It is therefore up to the faculty to re-engineer (sorry, that was an unintended) the syllabus, the mix of courses and the pedagogy.

Now, for the other end of the telescope. One reason for the mad rush to get into IITs is the assurance of a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. And, here the pot of gold are the IIMs, or the Indian Institutes of Management. These premier institutes also have a common entrance exam that is contentious. The structure of the exam shows that it’s weighted towards engineering students – or, it helps you score marks if you are an engineer. Also, given the tag of premier management institutes, students graduating here have a shot at the best jobs – make that the best-paying jobs – in the employment market. Therefore, the rush to get into IIT since admission in this hallowed institution is a guarantee of sorts. It definitely smoothens the path into IIM. Or, so is the perception.

It is this end of the telescope that Kapil Sibal and all education experts need to be tackling. Because the end is justifying the means.

Spooked: The BIS Annual Report 2011-12

The Bank for International Settlements, or BIS, the central bank of all central banks, has come out with its annual report (read here) for 2011-12 (BIS follows a April-March year).

The report contains some general observations, many of which are applicable to India. Sample some of the paragraphs:

1. The extraordinary persistence of loose monetary policy is largely the result of insufficient action by governments in addressing structural problems. Simply put: central banks are being cornered into prolonging monetary stimulus as governments drag their feet and adjustment is delayed...any positive effects of such central bank efforts may be shrinking, whereas the negative side effects may be growing.

Although this is with reference to the western economies with nominal interest rates ruling near zero and central bank balance sheets expanding, this paragraph could even apply to India. And, even though RBI has reeled its loose monetary policy back, on getting early warning signals of inflation and inflationary expectations during October-December 2009 (though some economists did blame RBI for delayed action), we do see the government failing to make the difficults adjustments or take the tough calls. Instead, they are relying on RBI to provide all the stimulus to the system and deliver growth.

So, here is the prognosis from BIS: central banks face the risk that, once the time comes to tighten monetary policy, the sheer size and scale of their unconventional measures will prevent a timely exit from monetary stimulus, thereby jeopardising price stability. The result would be a decisive loss of central bank credibility and possibly even independence. The last part is the scary bit.

2. Here is another relevant, though somewhat chilling, paragraph: Measures of debt service cost also suggest that high debt levels could be a problem. The fraction of GDP that households and firms in Brazil, China, India and Turkey are allocating to debt service stands at its highest level since the late 1990s, or close to it. Debt tends to accumulate on private sector balance sheets when interest rates are low. When rates eventually rise, higher debt service costs can trigger a painful deleveraging.

With the economy and industrial growth slowing down, commercial banks have been hit on two fronts: a deceleration in the build-up of commercial assets as well as retail lending slowing down. This means ;lower earnings and reduced bottomlines. However, banks are increasingly staring down the barrel of another risk: defaults. If that comes to pass, since high debt servicing becomes untenable in a low growth environment, bank balance sheets will be drenched in red ink.

For an interesting and different view of private sector debt, read former journalist and banker Haseeb Drabu's weekly column today (available here).

3. While the growth of banks from advanced economies has slowed, banks headquartered in emerging markets have been gaining in importance. Reporting steadily rising common equity, the average emerging market bank in a sample of large institutions worldwide is on a par with its US counterpart in terms of loan volumes; it has also substantially increased its securities investments. Chinese and Indian banks in particular expanded their balance sheets by roughly 75% between 2008 and 2011.

Only one point here: Remember this balance sheet growth took place during a period of economic stimulus which focused on consumption and not on capacity creation or expansion.With growth slowing down as expected, and rates continuing to remain high, this could force some banks to shrink their balance sheet sizes. We are seeing that happen already.

4. Countries such as Russia or India could experience considerable headwinds if growth slows as expected in their trading partners (Ukraine and Turkey for Russia, Middle East markets for India) during 2011–15. These headwinds could also be significant for most European countries, which trade heavily with each other and where growth forecasts have been sharply cut back.

So much bally-hoo was generated after June-July 2011 by the former Commerce Secretary about India diversifying its export markets, as well as its basket of export goods. Suddenly, we don't hear so much noise about it at all.

Sir, Your Talk Time's Over...

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, on June 6, announced a long list of projects that, when completed, can be expected to rejuvenate the economy's mojo. The markets -- already enthused by Reserve Bank deputy governor Subir Gokarn’s statement on rate cuts -- took heart from PM’s statements. In an economy devoid of any feel-good news and wracked by a steady stream of depressing developments (low GDP growth, a resurgent inflation rate, depreciating rupee, corruption, policy inaction), these two events were welcomed quite like the delayed monsoon clouds.

But it is primarily the PM’s statement that provides some hope to many beleaguered market operators. In short, the PM has proposed investments of over Rs 100,000 crore in various infrastructure projects across various sectors – such as, roads, power generation, coal, ports, aviation and railways. Read the full press release here and here.

The plan sounds grand and has all the right ingredients to lift the economy out of its current slough.

But -- and sorry to sound like a wet blanket -- market operators seem to be in for a big disappointment. What’s wrong with what has been announced? Technically, nothing. The economy needs large doses of investment at this juncture to pull it out of the morass and the recent declaration seems to fit the bill. But, such announcements have been made even in the past. Like earlier occasions, this time too, the government has trotted out only a large string of impressive numbers, but has failed to mention a couple of crucial facts.

Point One: Who, in the name of blazing heavens, has this kind of money today to invest in infrastructure projects? The government is already highly leveraged and is liable to get tripped by the market if it tries to borrow over and above its budgeted expenditure. The only way it can free up some cash is by cutting down on some items of non-plan expenditure, such as wasteful subsidies. But, as everybody knows, that is still a long shot. Even the private sector is hamstrung, with profits falling for FY12 and the continuing slowdown spooking all investment plans.

The only option left is overseas funding. But, the government needs to use the broom vigorously to clean up multiple acts before a single cent rolls in. For instance, there needs to be a serious rethink on external debt ceilings if the private sector is expected to pitch in with funds and expertise. Second, the government might need to use innovative structures to fund such projects without impacting the overall deficit numbers. (One can read ICICI Bank chairman K V Kamath’s interview for some ideas).

Point Two: Time to repeat the point that was made earlier. Such announcements have been often made in the past but without any follow-up on the achievements. In this case too, there seems to be no clues on how the government proposes to achieve these targets.

There are numerous reasons for the proverbial slip. For one, ministers handling the infrastructure portfolios are not schoolchildren in thrall to the headmaster or employees beholden to an autocratic boss. So, it really doesn’t matter whether they perform or not. These ministers are where they are because of other reasons. They have been elected to power and are holding a particular economic portfolio at the behest of the party chief and not the PM. Or, they are in the cabinet because they are part of the ruling coalition and helped UPA-II to stay on in power. Look at the empirical stuff: barring the ones facing criminal proceedings, not a single minister has been penalised for poor performance. Some have been merely shuffled off from one “lucrative” ministry to another.

Also, as has been seen on numerous occasions in the past, large projects are usually dogged by several problems: clearances, approvals, financial closure, regulatory hurdles. Add to that another malaise affecting most projects in India: the pay-off syndrome. Most large projects in India need to make pay-offs at multiple levels – at the central level, at the state and at the local municipality level. This adds to costs and, in many cases, renders the projects unviable. Inability to pay at any one level can delay the project irretrievably.

Do we have any word from the PM on how he’s going to block these malpractices? Nope. Any clues on how he proposes to give that all-important push to the projects? An investment tracking system has been set up (read here). Will that be that enough? As the cliché goes, only time will tell.

So, finally, how do we approach such announcements? I’d say hold the celebrations.

Petrol On Fire

In all fairness, the government shouldn't be blamed for policy paralysis. They have acted with such alacrity. Petrol prices were hiked by Rs 7.5 per litre as soon as Parliament went into recess. So, no shouting brigades, no loud thumping of desks, no rushing into the well of the House, no hectoring or haranguing, and no "pliss-pliss". Good only, no?

Actually, the petrol price increase raises two other issues. One, we can expect to finally see the extent of the increase pared down by Rs 2-3 per litre. The protests from allies has already started acquiring a high decibel level. By Wednesday evening, both Mamata Banerjee and Karunanidhi had voiced their displeasure over the increase. SP's Mulayam Singh Yadav, who is being courted assiduously by Congress as a counter-weight to Didi, also expressed his opposition to the price hike. Ditto for RJD's Laloo Prasad Yadav. So, once all these protests reach a crescendo, and acquire some kind of a shrill heft, we might expect to see the Congress top brass relenting and "rolling back" the hike partially. My bet? By Rs 2-3 per litre.

Even The Economic Times is betting that the price rise might finally be tempered somewhat (read here), though for a different reason. Their take: oil prices in the Singapore bulk market have been cooling off a bit.

But, ironically, BJP and CPI(M) have been misleading the public from every forum. By the way, isn't it strange how the right and left get into bed conveniently when they want to squeeze out the centre? Their beef: petrol price hike has a cascading effect and is likely to have a spiralling impact on inflation. That's a load of nonsense. Here's why. Petrol has a negligible weightage (1.09%) in the wholesale price index and its ability, therefore, to bump up headline inflation remains marginal. Also, bulk goods movement --such as essential commodities -- are moved by modes of transport that use diesel as fuel (think trucks) and not petrol.

Are there any reasons to protest against the petrol price increase? Of course, shiploads of reasons to crib about the price rise, but certainly not on account of its impact on headline inflation. The current hike comes on top of the existing inflationary pressures weighing down the middle class. And, this current episode of high inflation and inflationary expectations has its roots in the survival strategy crafted by the government in the aftermath of the 2008 global financial freeze, but let it stay on for far too long. In short, this lifeline to the economy should have been withdrawn much earlier. Plus, of course, the government has been loath to either cut down on wasteful subsidies, or re-align its expenditure strategy which is actually ending up further fuelling inflation. And, let's not even get started on this business about governance deficit. So, of course there's plenty to cry about, but not because a petrol price increase will lead to inflationary pressures as the voices from the right and left are asserting.

The government should have increased prices of diesel along with petrol prices if it really wanted to bring down the current account deficit and stabilise the rupee value. A diesel price hike might certainly be seen as inflationary, but at least these high prices would've curbed demand for the commodity. In return, it might have squeezed the import bill a bit, checked the runaway current account deficit and pulled up the falling rupee.

It is well known that fuel prices needed to be increased, and even the Reserve Bank governor's statements have alluded to the fact about how domestic fuel prices lagging international prices does lead to a build-up of inflationary expectations.

But, guess why diesel prices cannot be increased immediately, though news reports suggest the government will be meeting tomorrow to consider the possibility? The answer: it's summer in this part of the world and, with kharif sowing to begin soon (in the next 30-45 days), pols can't afford to get farmers cross about high diesel prices. In many parts of the country, farmers will need to run their pumps at full tilt, even though we've been told to expect a normal monsoon.

If there was any reason to carp, the grouse should have been why the government didn't spend on improving irrigation infrastructure in the 60 years since Independence. And guess what MPs and MLAs are mostly concerned about? Getting a red beacon on their cars!

In India, Ides of March Yield Record FDI Inflows

Much brouhaha has ensued over the March FDI numbers. It's come in at over $8 billion, compared to slightly over $1 billion during March 2011. This is supposed to be the highest FDI received in a single month and is a record of sorts. This data release -- a news break from NDTV (read it here) -- has also generated discussions, heated arguments and raised eyebrows.

The first reaction is one of  scepticism. Given the frequent revisions in government data (and the wide swings between the provisional and actual data releases), such cynicism is to be expected. However, it must be said that there is very little room for FDI data to gyrate wildly since the ticket size of each transation tends to be larger and the numbers are captured through a central tracking authority.

The second reaction is: if the inflows truly were over $8billion, then have we all been over-reacting over the past few months? Was the commentariat hasty in criticising this government's so-called "policy paralysis"?Did the FIIs and the global fund managers retreat too soon?

Well, the truth will out once the official numbers are released. But, in the meantime, it seems that there could be two reasons for this sudden bulge in the numbers this year.

One, it seems BP's investment of $7.2 billion in Reliance Industries was staggered over the course of 2011-12 and the final instalment of the investment could well have trickled in during March 2012.

Two, many FDI commitments, especially those related to long-gestation infrastructure projects, are staggered over the duration of the projects. Inflows, linked to project milestones, are therefore spread over many years. It could well be -- and this is just a speculation -- that some of FDI committed for infrastructure projects in earlier years and now flowing into the country this year.

There is another, rather unkind view of this favourable data leak, especially when Parliament is in session and the Government is on the back-foot over GAAR.

Whatever it is, an explanation will certainly be welcome.

Sensible Pension Plan

Wrote this piece for ET (read here) on pension reforms. Found it strange that the man who had introduced defined contribution to the country -- Yaswant Sinha -- should today push for a roll-back to the old system of guaranteed returns and defined benefits.