Threats: An Age-Old Tactic To Garner Votes

Nothing works like threats. Didn't somebody say something like that, in some movie? Well, life's imitating art out here in Election-land.

Election season gets the worse out in Indian politicians (actually, it could be any politician but my knowledge is limited to desi chaps). #Elections2014 are no different. There are no issues, campaigns are bereft of ideas and stump speeches are usually full of invectives and expletives. The manifestos are photocopies of each other, the candidates selected by the two central parties feature the usual rogues' gallery. They draw their support from smaller parties that wear mendacity on their sleeves.

It is, therefore, not unusual that most parties have resorted to threatening voters. The message is short, dire and bone-chilling.  Every political party is doing it. Complaints are pouring into the Election Commission. Here are just a few examples.

Sharad Pawar's nephew Ajit Pawar has embarrassed his uncle's Nationalist Congress Party by trying to browbeat voters from a West Maharashtra village into voting for his cousin Supriya Sule. The alternative: we'll cut off water supply to the village. Can he deliver on the threat? He is Maharashtra's deputy chief minister, as well as minister for water resources. He has the habit of putting his foot squarely where he shouldn't: once, when faced with complains of water shortage, he retorted by asking whether he should pee into the dams if there was no water in them. He obviously denies ever having made any of these statements.

Bhartiya Janata Party's far right, feeling somewhat neglected and forlorn, has started asserting itself. One obscure chap from Bihar -- Giriraj Singh -- recently trotted out the old chestnut again: he exhorted all those opposing BJP's PM candidate Narendra Modi to migrate to Pakistan. The BJP leadership seemed a bit red-faced, but Giriraj remained unrepentant. 

And then, as if in a competition to better that, leader of Vishwa Hindu Parishad -- a BJP compatriot party -- Pravin Togadia suddenly roared on Sunday that people belonging to minority denominations should be evicted from residential areas populated by the majority.

Actually, both Giriraj Singh and Pravin Togadia seem to be acting out a common strategy -- shepherding back the potential far-right elements who had probably started drifting during the past few weeks. It is possible that Modi's narrative (as well as BJP's under Rajnath Singh) had shifted from hard-core Hindutva to a slightly more ameliorative tone. Those occupying the centre and the left might not have noticed the change, but for those dreaming of a khaki-coloured future regime this might be palpably disturbing.

Threats -- subliminal or even overt -- are common during elections. The Congress used it to great effect during the 1984 general elections. Advertising agency Rediffusion used a subtle (and not-so-subtle) communications campaign to plant horrific images of violence and terror in the voter subconscious.

So, which threat is more effective? The answer, my friends, will be known on May 16, 2014.

Finals Are In 2016; Next Year Is Just The Semi-Final

Last time I said it, it sounded like a terrible cliche. But, the six months that lie between now and the general elections scheduled for March-April 2014 do indeed seem like a lifetime. And, despite the fact that a major indicator -- results of the elections to four state assemblies in November and December, 2013 -- is still in the works, some indications of the April 2014 hustings are already acquiring a distinctive shape.

So here is the prognosis (and I reserve the right to update it as the months roll out): 2014 will be more like a semi-final and the final will be played out only in 2016. Which means the new government -- whichever combo it is -- will not survive for too long. It will be done in by its own inherent contradictions, much like some of the previous short-lived formulations.

There is a piece in FirstPost already hinting at it (read it here) also, though the overall thrust of the piece is about the souring relations between the Gandhi family members and prime minister Manmohan Singh. But, we've already covered it in an earlier posting about how and why the ordinance was canned by Rahul Gandhi.

So, why am I expecting an anti-climax in 2014?

Look at it this way. Narendra Modi and his followers are desperately trying to convert the elections into a presidential format -- an exclusive battle of wits between him and Rahul Gandhi, or NaMo versus Raga, somewhat like the next highly-billed heavyweight bout at Las Vegas. BJP hopes this format will help it iron out some of the wrinkles presented by a fractured Indian polity, notably the rise of regional parties and coalition politics of the past 20 years. From all available accounts, the Modi camp wants at least 200 seats and the only way to go about it is to pitch him mano a mano with the leader of the ruling party.

Narendra Modi (left) and Rahul Gandhi (Photographs courtesy PTI Photos)

Yet, too many regional issues might still take precedence. For instance, the Telangana-Seemandhra fissures will surely be priority Number One for the Andhra voters, Delhi be damned. So, despite Chandrababu Naidu hitching his wagon to the NaMo star early in the race, Jagan Reddy might be holding most of the aces. In Bihar, while Lalu has been put away, the usual concerns of poverty, lawlessness, entitlements, etc will still dominate the campaign rhetoric. Uttar Pradesh will be battling the after-effects of the Muzzafarnagar riots. Post Phailin, voters in Orissa are still picking up the pieces. Mamata will bring a number of MPs from West Bengal to the negotiating table, even if they're a diminished lot. In Maharashtra, Raj Thackeray's MNS and Sharad Pawar's National Congress Party are both gearing up to corner as may negotiating chips as possible.

These factors have already been put into play and the BJP's attempts to turn this election into a NaMo-versus-RaGa spectacle might not yield any dividends. At least, not yet.

Congress, on the other hand, leaves behind a terrible record of governance. Their feeble attempt to win votes through the cash entitlement route can be a winner but not if some other narrative overwhelms it. And, BJP is trying to do just that with its unwavering focus on corruption during the UPA years. Congress has also conveniently found its straw-man in Manmohan Singh, and is fervently hoping that RaGa's family connections (hence his continuing references to his father's and grandmother's assassinations), his faux earnestness and his boyish charm will win the day.

However, both NaMo or RaGa will have to contend with a number of regional satraps with increased negotiating power. Expect a flurry of post-poll arrangements, tie-ups, understandings. And, this is likely to erode the decision-making powers of whichever government occupies the corner office. This is not an altogether welcome development, given that the country is looking forward to some decisive actions, some measures that will help nudge the economy back into growth mode.

Alongside, expect prolonged and public bickering over who gets which ministry. Most political parties still view governance as an entitlement to loot. This is evident from the fact that most leaders have inducted their sons and daughters as their successors. This rather unseemly squabbling over fish-and-loaves of office will also be another reason for the dissolution of the government in power.

On to 2016 then. In the meantime, enjoy the show. And keep an eye on that chap called Arvind Kejriwal. He seems to be just warmin' up.

Two-Bit Theory

Monday Morning and yet another epistle on the latest election results. I know, I know...there have been too many of these post-election analyses and I can even hear you groan, but this had to be written. Here are a couple of my observations.

* This general election will go down in the history books as the election of spoilers. Look around you. In state after state, whether it’s Andhra Pradesh or Maharashtra, some spoiler or the other has eaten into traditional vote banks and screwed someone’s chances. There are two ways of looking at this development. One is to assume that they are working under the umbrella cover of some large party and have been created to spoil another large party’s prospects. Second, if not, then these elections were the just the semi-finals, they were testing the waters and are now preparing for the next elections.

* The overwhelming support for Congress is, I think, is the voter’s way of showing his middle finger to all the various fronts and two-bit parties hoping to trade their four-five MPs like bargaining chips. The voter saw through the game when pre-poll alliances went out of control.

Voting Holiday

Why are people so surprised that the voter turnout was so low in Mumbai? Wasn’t it kinda expected?

For one, the newspapers were pretty sure that this was going to happen anyway, the day the Election Commission announced the final dates. The long weekend was visible to calendar-watchers even then. Wonder why the EC missed it?

But there are other reasons too. This is Bombay (no matter what other names you use for it) and the city breeds an animal instinct in you, teaches you to look out for yourself, from the moment you enrol into school, or start taking the 8:10 fast to college. You squeeze in, you elbow somebody else in the ribs, you stamp on somebody else’s feet if necessary, but you have to be on that train and you can’t afford to miss out on the first lecture. As Bob Dylan sang out, rather dryly: “Now, they take him and they teach him and they groom him for life./And they set him on a path where he's bound to get ill...” No wonder then that the Mumbai voter thinks – somewhat erroneously perhaps -- national duty or governance issues are not his concern.

But, this seems to be too easy an answer, almost like a politician’s glib reply to the question. Undoubtedly, the city does encourage self-aggrandisement, but that’s only part of the whole picture and it might be downright silly to cast all Mumbaikars in the same mould. Part of the reason also could be the low Muslim voter turnout, as pointed out by M J Akbar in latest column (http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Columnists/M-J-Akbar-The-missing-Mumbai-voters/articleshow/4477185.cms). But, this column feels that the main reason for voter apathy is the little choice that politicians and political parties have left on the polling booth table. The absurd drama of pre-poll alliances, the naked greed on display for power and pelf, the glaring absence of issues, the puerile name-calling...all of these reasons (and then some) added up to provide voters with the tipping point. Short holiday? Of course. Voting? Bah!

Taxing Half-Truths

This is election season. So, in keeping with the mood of the day, we’ll deal with the familiar area where economics and politics interact and blend into each other. Every now and then, some politician will stand up and berate the centre for not providing enough funds for Mumbai city. The logical course for this now-so-familiar harangue is as follows: highlight the city’s enormous contribution to the centre via direct taxes paid and then blame the centre for usurping these funds without spending a dime on the Mumbai’s development. This gets repeated often and – like any other fragment of gossip -- acquires some modicum of legitimacy.

The truth is often far removed. Let’s tackle the issues one by one. First, the tax contribution. It is entirely true that Mumbai city collects and provides huge amounts of income tax to the centre. Figures and percentages keep varying, depending on which report you are reading or which politician you heard last. It is also true that only a fraction of that money gets back to the city for its further development. But, here begins the smokescreen.

The income tax collected by the city is indeed huge. But, is all of that generated by Mumbai city alone? Not really. Take the case of some of the highest corporate tax payers. For example, the country’s largest bank, State Bank of India, is among the top tax payers from Mumbai city. But, are its profits derived from this megapolis alone? Hardly. The bank has thousands of branches spread across the country, conducting banking business, making profits, which all show up in Mumbai because the bank’s headquarters are based in the city.

Take the case of another large private sector company, Hindustan Unilever Ltd. The company makes soaps, detergents, toothpastes and other such products across the country and sells them widely throughout into every corner of this vast landmass. But, when it comes to paying taxes on its total profits (which includes contributions from each and every sale that occurs in some village or tehsil), the lump-sum amount seems to emanate from Mumbai only because the MNC’s India headquarters are located in the city.

But, have you ever wondered why does everybody harp about direct taxes only? Why does nobody actually talk about Mumbai contribution to, say, the total excise duty kitty? The reason is: excise is collected at point of manufacture and most factories are spread out across the country, instead of being concentrated in one city or state or region.

The second part of the half-truth: does the government spend very little on the city’s development? Absolutely, no doubt about that. But, again there’s more too it than meets the eye -- under the federal structure of the country, the centre pools all the central taxes received from the different states and then allocates resources from this pool to different states, based on a formula devised by a finance commission (which is changed every five years). In addition, the centre also launched a scheme called Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Management to improve the civic infrastructure of all major metro in the country. Resources are allocated based on certain criteria. People should ask: have the state government, or the city authorities, met all the conditions?

People should not get sold on half-truths about the city. Or get swayed by emotion-tweaking statements about the city’s contribution. In all of this, the city’s actual problems get dwarfed and its real contributions obfuscated.